The confluence of sports coverage and political coverage to the point where they are indistinguishable was entirely predictable. A bunch of guys and former players yelling about who they think is going to win.
Just wanted to say thanks to the Men Yell At Me community for being so kind and welcoming to me and my White Pages buddies! What a cool, smart community.
Judd Legum pointed out that polls were traditionally only important to campaign managers, but now it's all the media ever covers. Who will win? Who will have control? Nobody covers the policies, the agendas, or even the candidates themselves. It becomes another version of America's Got Talent, except one that has tremendous repercussions for all of us. Prediciton based coverage reduces this into a popularity contest.
Prediction-based coverage comes at a high cost because it crowds out the coverage that voters actually need. To make an informed decision, voters need to know the practical impact of voting for each candidate.
I was so depressed by all the stories about what the polls were saying. I felt like I knew in my heart that Americans are not that stupid. And I was kind of right? But I was scared to say so beforehand because it seemed like everyone else was SO SURE. I was also terrified that the majority of voters wouldn't care about women's right to bodily autonomy enough. So glad that didn't turn out to be the case.
Oh snap, there’s some Wednesday newsletter in my Friday newsletter! Love it. I watched 538 like a pot just about to boil in 2016 and it failed so goddamn hard I left entirely, and wow has that proven to be a good call. Silver is so assured he is ultimately right and is so often not.
I read or heard a story in the last week or so about some teenagers - I forget if it was HS or College - that were equally high on their own supply re: polls and the redder than predicted wave that was coming. I tried to hunt it down yesterday to no avail, but I worry about this country’s crow population after this election, since so many folks are sitting down to dine on it.
Good luck with the painting. It’s never as bad as it seems, and you can knock out both coats in one day if you run a dehumidifier, which I did literally yesterday.
I found Tom through you! Thanks for that! Had I not followed him I wouldn’t have found Chris Bouzy and Simon Rosenberg, all of whom share his sensical approach of talking to women! 🤣 Disappointed about Co-03 but we have exciting work to do in the Front Range! I haven’t been this pumped in DECADES and I have never ever knocked doors...but am signing up to do just that!
Also THANK YOU for saying we are not bad for reveling in the Twitter chaos. Like, I feel really bad for the people who lost jobs and I hope they all get all the Tesla stock in compensation. BUT the idea that Twitter was *ever* this pristine public town square marketplace of ideas, public statements, and news, or even that it *should* be that, was always ludicrous on it's face. I really hope it survives and that it stays crazy.
I'm totally fine with skewed polls if it scares the shit out of more people to get out and vote. I'm in NY and I have no idea how close the governor's race really would have been, but I know a LOT of people that skip NY elections because "it's a solid blue state, my vote doesn't matter" and all of the alarms (real or fabricated) going off got them there.
Michael Moore predicted this. Just like he predicted Trump in 2016. He makes movies. i don't want to disparage someone else's profession, but pollsters have a lot of 'splaining to do.
I don't believe you mentioned another lousy side to polls; they've become a substitute for reporting. For example, one particular newspaper in Des Moines acts as though their poll is the "Alpha & Omega" of all Iowans, and instead of reporting facts, they discuss their poll with a "what does this mean?" line of analysis.
You write about Hamm’s being the drink of the poor. I don’t know the truth of that one way or the other but I do have fond childhood memories of the Hamm’s ‘bear’ commercials on the Jack Benny Show. The bear would be skating on a frozen pond with snow on the ground. The music playing might be a Christmas melody and then at the end someone sings: Hamm’s the beer refreshing…Hamms. 😊
"Many words have been sacrificed in the service of explaining the phenomenon of Donald Trump. But I sometimes wonder if it wasn't just that he wasn't boring. (Also the racism.) But he wasn't boring. "
I said:
I discussed this topic last night with my wife. Remember back in 1998 when Jesse Ventura won the gubernatorial race in Minnesota? I asked a good friend living there about this, and his reply was, "everything's going good right now; why not have some fun?" Now, 25 years later . . .
To help us feel better about "moneypit" problems that arise in our home, my wife and I call every $1000 we spend House Points. "The plumbing back up that turned out to be cracked clay pipes all the way out to the street helped us earn fourteen house points!"
Dingus of the Week: Polling Data
The confluence of sports coverage and political coverage to the point where they are indistinguishable was entirely predictable. A bunch of guys and former players yelling about who they think is going to win.
Just wanted to say thanks to the Men Yell At Me community for being so kind and welcoming to me and my White Pages buddies! What a cool, smart community.
Judd Legum pointed out that polls were traditionally only important to campaign managers, but now it's all the media ever covers. Who will win? Who will have control? Nobody covers the policies, the agendas, or even the candidates themselves. It becomes another version of America's Got Talent, except one that has tremendous repercussions for all of us. Prediciton based coverage reduces this into a popularity contest.
Prediction-based coverage comes at a high cost because it crowds out the coverage that voters actually need. To make an informed decision, voters need to know the practical impact of voting for each candidate.
I was so depressed by all the stories about what the polls were saying. I felt like I knew in my heart that Americans are not that stupid. And I was kind of right? But I was scared to say so beforehand because it seemed like everyone else was SO SURE. I was also terrified that the majority of voters wouldn't care about women's right to bodily autonomy enough. So glad that didn't turn out to be the case.
Oh snap, there’s some Wednesday newsletter in my Friday newsletter! Love it. I watched 538 like a pot just about to boil in 2016 and it failed so goddamn hard I left entirely, and wow has that proven to be a good call. Silver is so assured he is ultimately right and is so often not.
I read or heard a story in the last week or so about some teenagers - I forget if it was HS or College - that were equally high on their own supply re: polls and the redder than predicted wave that was coming. I tried to hunt it down yesterday to no avail, but I worry about this country’s crow population after this election, since so many folks are sitting down to dine on it.
Good luck with the painting. It’s never as bad as it seems, and you can knock out both coats in one day if you run a dehumidifier, which I did literally yesterday.
I found Tom through you! Thanks for that! Had I not followed him I wouldn’t have found Chris Bouzy and Simon Rosenberg, all of whom share his sensical approach of talking to women! 🤣 Disappointed about Co-03 but we have exciting work to do in the Front Range! I haven’t been this pumped in DECADES and I have never ever knocked doors...but am signing up to do just that!
Also THANK YOU for saying we are not bad for reveling in the Twitter chaos. Like, I feel really bad for the people who lost jobs and I hope they all get all the Tesla stock in compensation. BUT the idea that Twitter was *ever* this pristine public town square marketplace of ideas, public statements, and news, or even that it *should* be that, was always ludicrous on it's face. I really hope it survives and that it stays crazy.
Hamm’s is the beer of the gods.
Amen. “While polls are not inherently evil, their use in political coverage is often a substitute for thought, analysis, and issues-based coverage.”
I'm totally fine with skewed polls if it scares the shit out of more people to get out and vote. I'm in NY and I have no idea how close the governor's race really would have been, but I know a LOT of people that skip NY elections because "it's a solid blue state, my vote doesn't matter" and all of the alarms (real or fabricated) going off got them there.
Michael Moore predicted this. Just like he predicted Trump in 2016. He makes movies. i don't want to disparage someone else's profession, but pollsters have a lot of 'splaining to do.
I don't believe you mentioned another lousy side to polls; they've become a substitute for reporting. For example, one particular newspaper in Des Moines acts as though their poll is the "Alpha & Omega" of all Iowans, and instead of reporting facts, they discuss their poll with a "what does this mean?" line of analysis.
Glad about the overall results - holding my breath on Georgia, sad about Iowa and where it has gone over the last decades.
You write about Hamm’s being the drink of the poor. I don’t know the truth of that one way or the other but I do have fond childhood memories of the Hamm’s ‘bear’ commercials on the Jack Benny Show. The bear would be skating on a frozen pond with snow on the ground. The music playing might be a Christmas melody and then at the end someone sings: Hamm’s the beer refreshing…Hamms. 😊
Lyz said:
"Many words have been sacrificed in the service of explaining the phenomenon of Donald Trump. But I sometimes wonder if it wasn't just that he wasn't boring. (Also the racism.) But he wasn't boring. "
I said:
I discussed this topic last night with my wife. Remember back in 1998 when Jesse Ventura won the gubernatorial race in Minnesota? I asked a good friend living there about this, and his reply was, "everything's going good right now; why not have some fun?" Now, 25 years later . . .
To help us feel better about "moneypit" problems that arise in our home, my wife and I call every $1000 we spend House Points. "The plumbing back up that turned out to be cracked clay pipes all the way out to the street helped us earn fourteen house points!"